Literary Analysis †the Road Not Taken Free Essays

Abstract Analysis †The Road Not Taken Shannon Eads Carradine ENG 125 Instructor Allen March 11, 2013 Choices. All of us settles on decisions in our regular day to day existence. We may not generally settle on the correct decision, however we take in and develop from an inappropriate ones. We will compose a custom article test on Abstract Analysis †the Road Not Taken or on the other hand any comparative theme just for you Request Now That is the thing that life is about; decisions. In Robert Frost’s sonnet, The Road Not Taken, he thinks about life’s decisions. â€Å"Two streets wandered in a yellow wood, And sorry I was unable to travel both/And be one explorer, long I stood† (Clugston, 2010). I am extremely acquainted with this sonnet; one that I have known since youth. I didn't have any acquaintance with it at the time what my extraordinary grandma was attempting to communicate to me about this sonnet, however as I matured it turned out to be increasingly more evident to me; she was attempting to show me life and settling on the correct decisions. The tone of this sonnet is of uncertain consultation; implying that the speaker (persona) is somewhere down in thought contemplating on which way the individual should take and whether it is and will be the correct way. The tone truly fixes the mind-set from the earliest starting point and streams well until the last refrain when it states: â€Å"I will be telling this with a sigh† (Clugston, 2010). Despite the fact that the speaker (persona) will moan when the individual in question recounts to the tale of this significant life choice, it's anything but a murmur of disappointment; it is a murmur of joy. Despite the fact that my incredible grandma read this sonnet to me in my youth years, I have never really perused the sonnet myself. I was astounded at how this sonnet kept me charmed and needing to understand it. This is difficult for me to do; needing to peruse. Along these lines, I will say it carried out its responsibility, as it were. Ice begins the sonnet with: â€Å"Two streets wandered in a yellow wood† (Clugston, 2010). The two streets wandered represents there are two distinct decisions or ways; while in a yellow wood represents the maturing of the individual. All things considered, taking the one less went by implies that the speaker (persona) picked the best way for the person in question around then in their life. For it states in the sonnet: â€Å"And that has made all the difference† (Clugston, 2010) persuades that he did in reality pick he right way for oneself. The second refrain of this sonnet is brimming with inconsistency. In the event that one is similarly as reasonable as the other, at that point how might one be a superior case than the other? What's more, on the off chance that the two ways have been worn about the equivalent, at that point for what reason was the â€Å"better claimed† way verdant a nd needing wear? On the other hand in the principal line of the third refrain states: â€Å"And both that morning similarly lay† (Clugston, 2010). This was confounding to me since I was unable to make sense of the idea of that thought and why the logical inconsistency. It is as though the speaker (persona) is gauging their choices and having issues in picking a way. In spite of the fact that my extraordinary grandma read this sonnet to me in my youth years, I have never really perused the sonnet myself. I was astonished at how this sonnet kept me captivated and needing to understand it. This is difficult for me to do; needing to peruse. In this way, I will say it carried out its responsibility, in a manner of speaking. I trust I may have an entirely different attitude toward perusing and might have the option to release myself on an excursion inside some type of writing; more than music or TV. I love this sonnet! It has the sentiment of incredible information; when we pick the correct way throughout everyday life, we will live in joy. I frequently set back and think about the entirety of the decisions I have made in my life, yet at the same time wonder now and again on the off chance that it was the correct decision for me at that specific second. I accept we as a whole, eventually in our life, contemplate on that inventive inquiry, â€Å"What if? † Life is about decisions and settling on the correct decision has a significant effect. Reference: Clugston, R. W. (2010). Excursion Into Literature. Bridgepoint Education Inc. , San Diego, CA: Retrieved from content. ashford. edu Instructions to refer to Literary Analysis †the Road Not Taken, Essay models

Diaspora Assignment Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Diaspora Assignment - Essay Example Croatian individuals have been prevailing in numerous fields in the Australian culture, particularly in the donning field where they have had such an incredible effect by involving the lion's share players in most Australian football clubs. This paper gives a basic investigation of the Croatian diaspora in Australia, advancement of media in the Croatian diaspora network in Australia, and instances of how media thoroughly analyzes to predominant press on same key issues in the network, in addition to other things. History of the Diaspora The idea of the diaspora became out of the noteworthy experience of dissipating Jews outside their local terrains and it suggests that an entire network, generally a country possessing a minimized domain, experienced a constrained scattering. This idea was made famous in the human science of relocation during the 1990s and the connection between the dissipated networks and the country is essential in characterizing the diaspora (Raggazi, 2009, p. 1). The country for workers is a wellspring of personality, notwithstanding being their wellspring of qualities and reliability; it very well may be commonly comprehended that each diaspora is a vagrant network on account of the cognizance of having a place with a typical country or potentially a far off country and following up on this awareness that in the long run characterizes the diaspora. Diasporas are regularly undertones of verifiably suffering forceful enthusiastic connections to the country, typically concerning some recorded bad form that requirements review (Colic-Peisker, 2008, p. 158); the Croatian Diaspora in Australia was because of the Yugoslav emergency of the 1980s and the war for freedom and its aftermaths. The commonplace sentiment of a lost country and disastrous outcast among the foreigners and the need to review the noteworthy complaints felt by a greater part of the Croatian emigres prompted the ascent of diasporic transnationalism (Colic-Peisker, 2008, p.158). The emigres expected initiative of Croatian people group outside Croatia and concentrated on the battle for Croatian autonomy from the socialist Yugoslavia, and by 1991 when Croatian freedom was affirmed by the disappointment of socialism, Croatian emigres everywhere throughout the world were known as a strongly politicized diaspora ruled by patriot pioneers. The most vocal piece of the Croatian Diaspora in Australia had seriously passionate and political association with the country, and its proclamation of hostile to socialism and separationist plan made it an obvious instance of significant distance patriotism. The Croatian diasporic patriotism had two pinnacles: the 1970s after the Croatian Spring, Yugoslav Communist specialists had smothered a Croatian patriot development in 1971, and during the war for Yugoslav progression in 1991â€1995, which politically prepared an enormous number of Croats in Australia. Improvement of Media advancement in the Croatian Diaspora in Austral ia has been smothered by absence of opportunity of the press and the progressive continuous media control that looks to restrain the impact of media both in the diaspora and in the country. In the old Yugoslavia, the Communist government controlled media and the Croatians realized just a restricted scope of data, and exceptional, the Croatian media isn't yet free and unprejudiced. For example, Karolina Vidovic, a Croatian writer whose program has been

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Biology Hungarian Press

Question: Talk about theBiologyfor Hungarian Press. Answer: Presentation The capacity is to make lactose and the breaking of sugars into basic proteins, for example, milk. B/b has been depicts as follows: B = the limit of the genotype to make creation of the lactase catalyst and have the option to process the conclusive outcome of the milk. Little letter b is utilized to speak to the genotype failure to process the lactose in milk. AA Means that the individual is in a situation to organically make the lactase and subsequently digest milk into the consequences of being fine with the end goal of absorption in the body stomach related framework. At the point when the individual or the character viable has the two genotypes adaptations he/she in a situation to create the unpredictable sugars in the part of D/d and E/e. E/e implies that the individual is in a situation to make the lactase and furthermore have the option to process the straightforward substance of protein just in a simple manner. The likelihood of two 1s is 0.25, (b) a 1 and 2 is 0.3. A 1 on the principal pass on and a 2 on the subsequent shakers are 0.5. The likelihood that you will be gotten from values that summarize the likelihood of getting one specific worth is 1/6. ... 7, 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+1, 6/36 = 17% or 0.17, to 2 or qualities that summarize to 11 is 0.2. At long last the qualities that summarize to anything aside from 6 are 0.4 as the likelihood. The genotypes that could be found in the posterity of An/A: B/b: D/d: E/e and An/a: b/b: D/d: e/e are lactase chemical and have the option to process the conclusive outcome of the milk. Peterson contended genotype x contains the substance that is characterized as the formula for the structure of the body (Richard, 2012, p.578). There are four potential genotypes in the example: B/b has been depicts as follows: B = the limit of the genotype to make creation of the. Little letter b is contrary the genotype that has protection from digest the lactose in milk. AA naturally make the lactase and henceforth digest milk into the consequences of being fine with the end goal of absorption in the body stomach related framework. The nearness of the two genotypes variants shows him/her in a situation to deliver the intricate sugars in the part of D/d and E/e. B) There are six phenotypes as given: E/e is the genotype that depicts the individual is in a situation to make the lactase and furthermore have the option to process the straightforward substance of protein just in a simple manner. The depiction of e/e implies that individuals in these measures of quality alteration can't at some random second be in a situation to lead an absorption of milk in a legitimate strategy in light of the fact that the people can't make the lactase and henceforth known as the person who are lactose narrow minded. D/d phenotype shows the predominance phenotype that wins and controls the rhesus factor in the person. b) The kinds of complete phenotypes L which is Lactose bigotry is a case of phenotype that is used in the stomach related framework in digestion thus it aids the assimilation of sugar and lactose into milk. The example above has a piece of quality that aids the creation of compounds and in this way lactase delivered is utilized to process the straightforward sugars. The phenotype H: stature of person and the shade of the eye student are driven and dictated by the phenotype organization. Diminutive people stature is spoken to by phenotype h since Genes are not created in a huge degree in the centralization of tallness of an individual. Mathew said the conduct can likewise be esteemed to be strength phenotype (Thompson, 2012, p.244). Collies is a phenotype model occupied with reproducing so as to deliver a beneficial and super type of creature with regards to sheep. In the event that the individual have never observed a sheep he will be in a situation to depict conduct that takes after that of grouping. Going around the bunk gathering the garbage and cushion cases is a model. The possibility that the posterity from An/a: B/b: D/D: E/e would be 70 % have the genotype which is thick and it is spoken to by a higher likelihood of 70% possibility that the posterity will contain the genotype from the accompanying estimations. An/a: B/b: E/e = 3 genotypes comprehensive guardians and furthermore referred to naturally as bearers. All out qualities = 4 the phenotype is spoken to by DD and in this manner the calculation is times 100% = 70%. The possibility that the posterity from these guardians would deliver the phenotype is A_ bb D e is half since the quality An and D are bearers and consequently the conceivably predominance qualities in this angle. Along these lines the two qualities and the phenotypes are two in number giving total of four thus 2/4 times 100/% =50%. On account of Arabiodapsis thaliana, the plant has got substance of five chromosomes altogether each having an organization of delivering two unique gametes by the parent. These are autosomes individuals henceforth they are completely homogenous and the measures is known as the homozygous of the locus. Alleles which are diverse in structure and this influences the gametes creation constraining to two in number. There are ten unique genotypes which win on account of the F1 , the genotypes are imitated by the gamete creation which makes the twofold of the quantity of accessible qualities. Assume that F1 plant from the above part is self-pollinated the genotypes that are conceivable to be in the F2 are four. The gamete genotypes conveyed by the method of self-crossed fertilization and their host means two. The plant F2 as of now has got two distinct genotypes in the structure subsequently the absolute genotypes are 4. On account of two earthy colored mice, 9 earthy colored puppies and 3 white little guys in the descendants I would utilize the direct extrapolation cross to decide the sort of genotype found in the structure of earthy colored posterity. The purpose for the choice of this cross I have received is on the grounds that the life forms in this setting can't depict a condition of haploid nature of the mice. The conceivable phenotypic proportions that are found in the cross above are 3:1 and 2: 1. The general probability of every single outcomes above is that the proportion of 3;1 got from the 9 earthy colored little guys and 3 white puppies in the descendants is high contrasted with the 2 earthy colored mice and one white mice. the odds that their first offspring of John and Martha will have galactosemia is low and the portrayal is 0.2 % since the hereditary issue is autosomal latent legacy. This won't happen in light of the fact that the on account of Martha the sisters has got effectively conceived an offspring and the three youngsters has no galactosemia: The probability is nil or negative. c) For the situation of the principal kid being contaminated with the hereditary issue the probability of their third kid being influenced is high. Erick said the autosomal latent malady will duplicate by three subsequently a 70% possibility of being contaminated with the turmoil (Willy, 2014, p.637). The phenotype that F1 could have is known as heterozygous phenotype of the unadulterated reproducing mouse with short haired round ears mouse. The level of the F2 that would be phenotypically looked like by the guardians in the first cross is 60% given that the F2 have a higher score in number in oneself - intersection of F1. Chances that the keeps an eye on first extraordinary grandkid will have wooly hair are 80% as a result of the co predominance or the qualities in the individuals of Scandinavian. Assume that the man have four incredible grandkids altogether, the odds that precisely one will be in the peril of wooly hair is 20%. Peterson said a higher probability of the youngsters will have the attribute that is autosomal (Gabriel, 2013, p.444). There is legacy of the gloomy and cut attributes are as far as anyone knows acquired from the long straightforward wings where the phenotypes are the recognizable characteristics comprising of highlights. Thomas said an elaboration of this point is found in the pea plant where the appearance is either shading green or yellow contingent upon nature (Luke, 2009, p.123). Adjustment factor to nature is the explanation for the situation. Genotypes of the guardians W and w for the long straightforward wings and the Dd for the shadowy wings. a) The allele images show the genotypic structure henceforth the portrayal of the data from the family gave: AA and bb. This individual is in danger of getting the diseasefrom the historical backdrop of the family. The history gave has been used as an analytic apparatus and hence assists with managing the choices showed up of hereditary. There are sicknesses that are basic in the family tree and ground-breaking screening device which is refreshed on each check by patients. Likelihood for the cutting edge to have the shortcoming in their qualities and henceforth endure is high. b) The individual set apart with the question mark subsequently low odds of 70 % being unaffected by the quality. ( a) The anticipated phenotype frequencies of guys and females are ramble male with incredibly short wings nearly in equipped for flying and the bruised eyes will be twofold the number as far as treatment as a result of the co strength of diploid nature of the eggs. The phenotype frequencies I would expect incase the eggs were 80% females is haplodiploids henceforth the ants will be in excess of three which have white eyes. The male whom the lady may have a kid influenced by OTD is the spouses mother who is a transporter for OTD. In the above blending where the womans father has ornithine transcarbamylase lack the extent of children and little girls that I hope to have OTD is 1 little girl and 2 children. Works Cited Thomas, P. (2012). Elaboration of this point is found in the pea plant where the appearance is either shading green or yellow contingent upon the earth. Australia: Melbourne press. Peterson, N. (2013). Genotype x contains the substance that is characterized as the formula for the structure of the body. Sydeny :Times press. Mathew, L. (2012). The conduct can likewise be considered to be predominance phenotype. Melbourne: Hungarian press. Erick, A. (2014). The autosomal passive illness will duplicate by three consequently a 70% possibility of being contaminated with the turmoil. Current press: New York.

The Phaedo Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

The Phaedo - Essay Example Those foes would be a real existence squandered on the quest for joy to the detriment of torment (joy pulled back). This very duality of life, as indicated by Socrates, is the most despicable aspect of presence for the entirety of humankind. In the event that one invests a lot of energy trapped in the hallucination of natural delights, at that point faces a dread of death because of mindlessness to the improvement of the psyche and soul, at that point that life is woefully squandered. However to Socrates, softly grasping joy permits one to improve joy and not dread its expulsion, for such an individual knows, that delight is simply fleeting and not a consistent. In prevailing to do this, one defeats the dread of death, for the loss of joy is a passing in itself. Dread of losing delight is dread of death. It is not necessarily the case that the structure demise may take is pleasurable, however Socrates clarifies that the genuine logician from at an early stage pursues passing throughout everyday life, looks for endings and profundity, the quintessence of delight and agony and finds inside this duality a wealth that is elating instead of terrifying. To live with death consistently, or at the end of the day, living every day getting ready to pass on, is the very stuff of the genuine thinker. An actual existence all around lived ought not be lamented; Socrates asks why individuals who face demise dread freedom from common weights when life could be lived liberated from common weights by remembering them as images as opposed to strict things. In d In examining the joy/torment guideline, Socrates clarifies that the dread of misfortune during life is a perpetual trade of one delight for another. He exhibits this by expressing that, similar to coins, individuals go without one joy just to supplant it with another so as to be mild. Like coins, the parity of joys is held in line, yet there is consistently the dread of them being evacuated, lost or taken. The thinker sees the ineptitude of such reasoning and permits delight to go back and forth however it sees fit, it for what it is. Joy does not merit relinquishing one's common life to get and clutch it, for it is sly and whimsical. The genuine coin, Socrates says, is Wisdom. Strikingly, Socrates says level out that we are conceived from the dead (at the end of the day, we are dead until we are conceived); along these lines, for what reason should we dread passing We as of now have en presence before we enter this world and we will recover that presence after leaving this world. As we discover great individuals in this world, so we will discover them on the planet from whence our spirits came. From this discussion springs the way in to the duality on the planet through the case of structures; in this world, structures are objects that help us recollect; forever is basically an endeavor to review what has been overlooked as opposed to know anything. Genuine information and the accomplishment of shrewdness is the blend of the framed and the unformed, the conceived and the unborn, the goals everything being equal. As Socrates clarifies (and to place it in present day terms), structures are images of what we know and are connections to numerous recollections, each summoning a sentiment of delight or agony. There is no evident learning, just recollecting (which is another method for saying that the cerebrum is restricted to the brain, yet the spirit is autonomous of both). My sibling's sweater helps me to remember

Strategic analysis of Acer Inc. - 3025 Words

Strategic analysis of Acer Inc. (Research Paper Sample) Content: Strategic analysis of AcerNameLecturerDateIntroductionAcer Incorporated is a multinational electronics manufacturer based in Taiwan. Its product includes desktops, laptops, servers and storage, peripherals, personal digital assistance (PDA), peripherals and e-business services for business, government, education, and home users. Acer Inc is the third largest computer manufacturer in the world after HP and Dell (Shaw Kotler, 2009). Acer Company owns the largest franchised computer retail chain in Taiwan, Taipei. The company was founded by Stan Shih, Carolyn Yeh his wife, and a group of five others in 1976 as a Multitech. Acer has since been the third largest computer manufacturing company in the world holding 9.5% of the market share, with its growth being experienced outside USA mature market, largely in emerging nations. The peripherals and PC industry is very competitive and Acer has maintained growth since 1999 with significant growth in revenues. The key competit ors in the market include Dell, HP and Lenovo; however there is a fragmentation of the market with 46% of it owned by brands which have market share of less than 4% each. Acer seeks to increase its market share through release of premium PCs under Ferrari brand and expansion in LCD TVs with BenQ brand (Unruh Ettenson, 2010). This paper seeks to give a detailed report of strategic analysis of Acer Inc. The paper will analyze the environment in which Acer functions and identify the opportunities and threats to which it might expect to have to respond. This will be done through environmental analysis (PESTLE, Porterà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s Five Forces, and SWOT). The report will also make analyses of the resources and key capabilities of the company plus the factors that give the company its competitive advantage. This will be done through assessing the Industry Critical Success Factors, analyzing resources and capabilities and link the generic strategy. Finally the paper will assess the extent t o which Acerà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s existing strategies match its environment and suggest improvements where there is a justification. This will be done through looking at the companyà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s strategy within its environment and use of the J and S three tests (suitability, acceptability, feasibility and suggested improvements. There will be a final management summary, conclusion and recommendations to the company and sample diagrams of the models of market and environment analysis.The environment in which Acer functions and the opportunities and threats to which Acer expect to have to respondAcer is the third largest manufacturer of electronics (PC) in the world using a transnational strategy for procuring its components in order to maintain cost leadership. Through using SWOT analysis, Porterà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s Five Forces, PESTLE, Value chain and strategic maps, a comprehensive analysis of Acer Inc. internal and external forces are reviewed. However, we will focus of Porterà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s Five Forc es and SWOT analysis in environmental analysis of Acer Inc. in this paper. Acer Inc functions in a very competitive market with market giants such as Lenovo, Dell and HP. However, the strategy of Acer is to remain the third largest manufacturer of PC in the globe in this highly competitive and commoditized industry. The strategy includes development of new technology, acquisitions, solidifying strategic alliances with firms like McAffee and Microsoft, and growing the emerging Japanese and EMEA regions (Shaw Kotler, 2009).Acer Inc. competes in its functional environment within the industry of PC and peripherals offering personal computer solutions for businesses and consumers. In contrary to its competitors, Acer Inc. provides alternative brands for various segments of customers instead of just one brand wit different variables. This enables Acer to maintain a margin for every brand without any form of cannibalization. Majority of brands within the industry of PC offer one brand. Ho wever, only Acer offers various brands for different customer segments. Though Acer takes middle ground on the basis of reputation and pricing, as well as covering the low and premium end of market, other brands operate on a higher or lower pricing provides dependent upon their segment of the market. For example, whereas Lenovo and HP take a higher price position, Dell takes a position of price leadership. The main aspect is that Acer compared to its competitors stands alone in providing a range of products targeting different segments of the market and consumers (Taylor Nichols, 2010).SWOT AnalysisIn a SWOT analysis of the company, we will detail only the opportunities and threats facing Acer. Some of the opportunities of Acer Inc. may include: leveraging the relationship with other companies in Taiwan in order to find technology and efficiencies for PCs; and to continue finding new markets as well as increase their brands to fit the needs and requirements of their customers. This would possibly increase their market share and profits. On the other hand, Acer is faced by various threats in the industry and environment in which it functions. Some of these threats include: iPhone and iPad creating a new market with no need for PCs; disintermediation in which manufacturers go to the public directly e.g. Dell; it is becoming challenging and hard to keep and maintain awareness of the brands outside cost leadership; and a killer application developed by manufacturers affecting the whole PC and peripherals industry e.g. Apple (Shaw Kotler, 2009).Porterà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s Five Forces modelIn an external environmental analysis, we will focus on Porterà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬s Five Forces. This is a tool of organizational external analysis used to understand where power lies in the situation of business (Porter, 2001). The forces that we consider for Acer Inc include: the bargaining power of customers, the threat of substitute products, and the threat of new competitors entering the mar ket, the bargaining power of suppliers, and the intensity of competitive rivalry. The customer bargaining power is the ability of such customers to put under pressure the firm to alter the prices and affect the sensitivity of price changes to the customers (Porter, 1987). The substitutes of Acer Inc. are HP, Lenovo and Dell since they manufacture same products, desktop and laptops. However, Acer has come out with a line of unique products, Acer Timeline Series offering screen sizes from 13.3 inch to 15.6 inch. Customer loyalty according to Porter means customers prefer to stay with the brand at the moment mostly because may be a company is offering well after sale services. Acer offers a warranty of 3 years for its brands while its competitors do not offer such service to their products. Acer has the trendiest laptop that is long lifetime for battery of up to 8 hours. The products are also ultra thin, less than 1 inch and portable. Acer also has a multi gesture touch pad used like a mouse, with a high definition 16:9. Acer sustains itself in the market through improving its products and considering environmental measures. This will increase barrier to exit. Acer has done this via the Acer Timeline Series manufacture (Porter, 1979). The bargaining power of supplier is high when the market is monopolized and the supplier refuses to supply goods. For example, the main supplier of processor to Acer is AMD and Intel. If they both increase their prices and Acer has no choice of buying from them the processors, the Acer products will also have their prices increased and the consumers may buy other brands from the market (Orit, Leung Vesting, 2007).PESTLE AnalysisAcer Inc is affected by macro environment factors, factors which operate in its external environment. These factors are not specifically about Acer alone but affect the overall operation of the organization and the industry in general. Acer cannot control macro environment factors since they are external fac tors which are not very particular about Acer. Therefore Acer only needs to manage the impacts of such factors to their sales and branding. Macro environment are described by PESTLE (political factors, economic factors, Social factors, Technological factors, Legislative factors and environmental factors). Acer has managed to tackle these factors through its enabling environment and branding strategies. These factors impact on the market and may limit the share of market held by Acer.The resources and key capabilities of the company plus the factors that give the company its competitive advantageOn the foundations of analysis, Acer has adopted various strategies to ensure that it remains competitive and retains its ranking at number 3. Acer strives to find a Blue Ocean against its competitors by using premium branding of its product from Ferrari or any other premium luxury brand and make determinations if it can be derived from green and sustainable materials. The resources and ca pabilities of Acer are determined by the use of a balance scorecard with alliances in order to help in driving innovation plus a tested and a tried system of sales in order to increase the market share of Acer. The company derives its competitive advantage from various growth strategies. The competitive strategy of Acer is to be a low cost provider, which undercuts rivals in maintaining cost leadership to a wide and larger range of consumers. However, while this olds as the truth for Acer and Emachines, more offerings of premium like Ferrari and Gateway are the main targets of other competitive strategies. Ferrari has embraced a niche market strategy in differentiation basis while Gateway has emphasized on low cost strategy (Nidumolu Prahalad Rangaswami, 2009).The competitive advantage of Acer is to find new markets to continually drive growth, build the product on the basis of transnational, build alliances with ...

The use of decision tree analysis - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 13 Words: 3843 Downloads: 3 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Compare and contrast essay Did you like this example? The main focus of this seminar paper is on decision tree analysis and its applications in various industries. It also discusses about issues of decision making under uncertainty and risks involved in some of the projects. Statement of the problem For successful execution of a project, a project manager should be able to take right decisions under conditions of certainty, risk and uncertainty. As the situation progresses from certainty to risk to uncertainty, the expected potential damage to the project increases. Various methods of decision making are employed in order to take optimal decisions. The study of decision tree analysis is done to understand its significance in assisting project managers in taking decisions. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "The use of decision tree analysis" essay for you Create order objectives of the study To gain understanding of method of decision tree analysis To grasp knowledge of role of decision tree analysis in decision making To learn about importance of decision tree analysis in assessment of projects Significance of the study The study of this seminar paper assists in learning about decision tree analysis role of decision tree analysis in decision making applications of decision tree analysis in various industries issues of decision making under uncertainty and risks involved in some of the projects Scope and Limitations of the study Scope The scope of the study is learning about decision tree analysis, its role in decision making, its applications in various industries and the issues of decision making under uncertainty and risks involved in some of the projects. limitations This study does not include techniques of decision making under certainty. It does not provide in-depth knowledge of all techniques of decision making under uncertainty and risk. Review of literature Basics of decision tree analysis Decision tree is a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. Its common application is in operations research, especially in decision analysis, for identifying a strategy to attain an objective. Other applications include its use as a descriptive means for calculating conditional probabilities. It acts as visual tool where the expected values (or expected utility) of competing alternatives are calculated and guides in choosing the best alternative. Decision trees depict the sequence of interrelated decisions and the expected results of making choice among alternatives. When a decision is to be made, there are generally more than one choices or options. The available choices are depicted in tree form starting at the left with the risk decision branching out to the right with possible outcomes. Decision trees are usually used for risk events associated with time or cost. A decision tree c onsists of 3 types of nodes:- 1. Decision nodes which are commonly represented by squares 2. Chance nodes which are represented by circles 3. End nodes which are represented by triangles Decision tree is drawn from left to right and has splitting paths but no converging paths. Therefore, in cases of elaborate future events, it is often difficult to draw manually. Nowadays various solutions and softwares are provided by many companies for drawing decision trees, analyzing the results and defining the best alternative amongst the available choices. Steps in decision tree analysis Main steps in decision tree analysis are as follows: 1. Identifying the problem and alternatives To understand the problem and develop alternatives, it is necessary to acquire information from different sources like marketing research, economic forecasting, financial analysis, etc. As the decision situation unfolds, various alternatives may arise which are to be identified. There would also be kinds of uncertainties in terms of market size, market share, prices, cost structure, availability of raw material and power, governmental regulation. Technological change, competition, etc. Recognising that risk and uncertainty are inherent characteristics of investment projects, persons involved in analyzing the situation must be encouraged to express freely their doubts, uncertainties, and reservation and motivated to suggest contingency plans and identify promising opportunities in the emerging environment. 2. Delineating the decision tree The decision tree represents the anat omy of decision situation. It illustrates decision points along with the alternative options available for experimentation and action at these decision points chance points where outcomes are dependent on a chance process and the likely outcomes at these points This decision tree diagrammatically reflects the nature of decision situation in terms of alternative courses of action and chance outcomes which have been identified in the first step of the analysis. If myriad possible future events and decisions are considered, it can become very complex and cumbersome. As a result, it would not be a useful tool of analysis. If many elaborate events are taken into account then it may obscure the critical issues. Hence it is necessary to simplify the decision tree so that focus can be given on major future alternatives. 3. Specifying probabilities and monetary outcomes After delineating the decision tree, probabilities corresponding with each of the possible outcomes at va rious chance points and monetary value of each combination of decision alternative and chance outcome have to be gathered. The probabilities of various outcomes can be defined objectively. For instance, based on objective historical data the probability of good monsoon can be defined. On the other hand, probabilities for real life outcomes are somewhat difficult and cannot be obtained. For example, one cannot determine the probabilities for success of a new automobile launch. These have to be defined subjectively and based on experience, judgment, understanding of informed executives and their intuition. Also, it is difficult to assess cash flows corresponding to these outcomes. So again judgment of experts helps in defining these cash flows. 4. Evaluating various decision alternatives The final step in decision tree analysis includes evaluation of various alternatives. This can be done as follows: Starting with the right- hand end of the tree and then we calculate the e xpected monetary value at various chance points that come first as we proceed leftward. Given the expected monetary values of chance points in step 1, evaluate the alternatives at the final stage decision points in terms of their expected monetary values. At each of the final stage decision points, select the alternative which has the highest expected monetary value and truncate the other alternatives. Each decision point is assigned a value equal to the expected monetary value of the alternative selected at that decision point. Proceed backward (leftward) in the same manner, calculating the expected monetary value at chance points, selecting the decision alternative which has the highest expected monetary value at various decision points, truncating inferior decision alternatives, and assigning values to decision points, till the first decision point is reached. Advantages Amongst decision support tools, decision trees have several advantages: Easy to interpret and understand With availability of little hard data this method helps in generating important insights Result provided by a model/ software can be easily explained Can be used in combination with other decision techniques Example Decision trees can be used to optimize an investment portfolio. The following example shows a portfolio of 7 investment options (projects). The organization has $10,000,000 available for the total investment. Bold lines mark the best selection 1, 3, 5, 6, and 7, which will cost $9,750,000 and create a payoff of 16,175,000. All other combinations would either exceed the budget or yield a lower payoff. Decision Making Tools: Decision Tree Analysis and EMV Decision Tree Analysis In decision tree analysis, a problem is depicted as a diagram which displays all possible acts, events, and payoffs (outcomes) needed to make choices at different poin ts over a period of time. Example of Decision Tree Analysis: A Manufacturing Proposal The company is assessing a new product development proposal. The cost of the development project is $500,000. The probability of successful development is projected to be 70%. If the development is unsuccessful, the project will be terminated. If it is successful, the manufacturer must then decide whether to begin manufacturing the product on a new production line or a modified production line. If the demand for the new product is high, the incremental revenue for a new production line is $1,200,000, and the incremental revenue for the modified production line is $850,000. If the demand is low, the incremental revenue for the new production line is $700,000, and the incremental revenue for the modified production line is $150,000. All of these incremental revenue values are gross figures, i.e., before subtracting the $500,000 development cost, $300,000 for the new production line and $100,000 for the modified production line. The probability of high demand is estimated as 40%, and of low demand as 60%. The development of a decision tree is a multi step process. The first step is to structure the problem using a method called decomposition, similar to the method used in the development of a work breakdown structure. This step enables the decision-maker to break a complex problem down into a series of simpler, more individually manageable problems, graphically displayed in a type of flow diagram called a decision tree. These are the symbols commonly used: The second step requires the payoff values to be developed for each end-position on the decision tree. These values will be in terms of the net gain or loss for each unique branch of the diagram. The net gain/loss will be revenue less expenditure. If the decision to not develop is made, the payoff is $0. If the product development is unsuccessful, the payoff is $500,000. If the development is successful, the decis ion is to build a new production line (NPL) or modify an existing production line (MPL). The payoff for the NPL high demand is ($ 1,200,000 $500,000 development cost -$300,000 build cost) or $400,000. For a low demand, the payoff is ($700,000 $500,000 development cost -$300,000 build cost) or -$100,000. The payoff for the MPL high demand is ($850,000 -$500,000 development cost $100,000 build cost) or $250,000. For a low demand, the payoff is ($720,000- $500,000 development cost $100,000 build cost) or $120,000. The third step is to assess the probability of occurrence for each outcome: Development Successful = 70% NPL High Demand = 40% MPL High Demand = 40% Development Unsuccessful = 30% NPL Low Demand = 60% MPL Low Demand = 60% Probability Totals* 100% 100% 100% *Probabilities must always equal 100%, of course. The fourth step is referred to as the roll-back and it involves calculating expected monetary values (EMV) for each alternative course of action payoff . The calculation is (probability X payoff) = EMV This is accomplished by working from the end points (right hand side) of the decision tree and folding it back towards the start (left hand side) choosing at each decision point the course of action with the highest expected monetary value (EMV). Decision D2: New Production Line vs. Modified Production Line high demand + low demand = EMV high demand + low demand = EMV (4 0% X $400,000) + (60%X -$100,000) (40% X $250,000)+(60% X $120,000) $100,000 $172,000 Decision Point 2 Decision: Modified Production Line with an EMV of $172,000 Decision 1: Develop or Do Not Develop Development Successful + Development Unsuccessful (70% X $172,000) (30% x (- $500,000)) $120,400 + (-$150,000) Decision Point 1 EMV=(-$29,600) Decision: DO NOT DEVELOP the product because the expected value is a negative number. When doing a decision tree analysis, any amount greater than zero signifies a positive decision. This too l is also very useful when there are multiple cases that need to be compared. The one with the highest payoff should be picked. Example The project manager can use decision tree analysis when a decision involves a series of several interrelated decisions. The project manager computes the Expected Monetary value (EMV) of all strategies and chooses the strategy with the highest EMV. Assume that the project manager has four alternative strategies, S1, S2, S3, and S4. The resultant values for each strategy at different probability levels are R1, R2, and R3. Assume that the probability of occurrence of these results is 0.5, 0.2 and 0.3. The payoff matrix for this problem is given in table 1. Table 1: Payoff Matrix R1 R2 R3 S1 13 10 9 S2 11 10 8 S3 10 12 11 S4 8 11 10 The project manager can also represent this problem as a decision tree. Figure: 1 depicts the decision tree for the given problem. The project manager finally selects strategy S1 as it has the highest expected value. Figure 1 EMV (A) = 0.5 (13) + 0.2(10) + 0.3(9) = 11.2 EMV (B) = 0.5 (11) + 0.2(10) + 0.3(8) = 9.9 EMV (C) = 0.5(10) + 0.2(12) + 0.3(11) = 9.8 EMV (D) = 0.5(8) +0.2(11) + 0.3(10) = 9.2 Case study R and D management, by its very nature, is characterized by uncertainty since effective R and D requires a complex interaction of variables. It is important to balance strategic management (allocate resources and do the right R and D) with operational management (execution of projects) and at the same time take into account issues of people management (leadership, motivation, organisation and teamwork) (Menke, 1994). The strategic aspect of R and D management alone requires the resolution of some very important questions, namely Whether we have the right budget of R and D? Whether allocation is done to right business and technology areas? Whether there is a right balance of risk and return; of incremental vs. innovation; of long- and short-term projects; of research vs. development? Are we working on the right projects and programmes with the right effort? It is clear that for success in R and D it is critical to determine what is right for the particular company. Th e normal process for doing this is through the development of a technology strategy. In practice, the approach used will be that which best fits the operating method of the company but, as Braunstein (1994) has pointed out, the approach is less important than the output, which has to link the corporate goals and strategy to the companys major functional units. Having defined what the business objectives should be for the R and D programme and the overall strategic framework that will define the technology plan, it is then possible to move on to what is probably one of the most problematic parts of technology management, the selection of individual R and D programmes. There is a comprehensive literature of potential methods which can be used (Baker and Pound, 1964; Gear et al., 1971; Souder, 1978). Many of these compare projects with different distributions of possible outcomes and risk, often using relatively complex quantitative methods. There are a number of interdependencies t hat have to come good before the project finally produces value for the company and it has been argued (Morris et al., 1991) that because many of the major decisions (and many sub-decisions at intermediate milestones) can be taken singly, the overall process is less risky that might initially be thought. Not surprisingly, therefore, Morris goes on to propose that, when choosing R and D projects, there is merit in going for long shots since this is effectively the purchase of options which can be dropped later if the project does not look like bearing fruit. Moreover, the higher risk projects (almost by definition) tend to be the ones that have the highest payback if they are successful (see also Kester, 1984). 2. Decision making under uncertainty Uncertainty in a business situation is often expressed verbally in terms such as it is likely, it is probable, the chances are, possibly, etc. This is not always very helpful because the words themselves are only useful when they convey the same meaning to all parties. It is clear that different people have different perceptions of the everyday expressions which are often used to describe uncertainty. Uncertainty exists if an action can lead to several possible outcomes and an essential, but, challenging aspect of R and D management is to identify the likelihood or probability that these outcomes or events will occur. There are two main interpretations of probability. The first is grounded in the estimation of the probability of an event in terms of relative frequency with which the event has occurred in the past and is usually referred to as objective probability. The second views probability as being the extent of an individuals or groups belief in the occurrence of an event a nd is usually termed subjective probability. Subjective probability estimates are often included in the models suggested as useful for project selection in R and D planning. Such probabilities might be derived from past experience with similar research projects plus any special features that make the current effort unique or different and alter the past up or down from this base line. A number of tools have been proposed to help in the process of generating probabilities, though they are by no means perfect. Schroder (1975) draws attention to some of the problems that occur in deriving probabilities of technical success and concludes that subjective probabilities are a rather unreliable predictor of the actual outcome of individual success. He proposes a number of reasons for this which he categorises as either intentional or unintentional (conscious biasing). To decrease the unintentional errors he suggests the following actions: ensure that risk assessors have sufficient exp ertise in their field and a comprehension of subjective probabilities. improve the availability of information and particularly documentation. fully exploit information systems and attempt to utilize incentive systems which reward accuracy and reliability. analyse past performance in assessing probabilities to provide valuable insight into potential improvements. utilise well-tried approaches to help in the subjective probability assessment. It is evident, however, that some confidence levels need to be established and perhaps the most obvious way of achieving this is by the collation over a period of time, of how prior assessments have compared with reality. For this to have genuine value will require a comparison of the assumptions that have been made at each assessment. 3. The use of financial methods for risk analysis Benefit/cost ratios have been popular for some time, since they are simple and are an attempt to understand the potential gain for the effort required. In performing even a simple benefit/cost analysis, it is necessary for the decision-maker to provide quantitative information in order to ascribe a value to a project. When this has been done, the project can be viewed as a relatively simple financial investment and therefore subject to more standard financial investment tools. The danger of this is that it gives no consideration to the fact that technical programmes are often aimed at a wide range of strategic objectives, a point made by Mitchell and Hamilton (1988) who made a separation into: exploratory/fundamental type work which is aimed primarily towards the concept of knowledge building. For this type of work, the business impact of which is often poorly defined and wide ranging and here R and D is often best considered as a necessary cost of business. well understoo d technical programmes usually associated with incremental improvements of existing products which can be clearly defined. Here the R and D can be seen as an investment and treated accordingly. As usual with two extremes, the difficult part is the mid-ground where neither approach is particularly suitable. Authors have attempted to use techniques borrowed from the financial community which often has to deal with uncertainty. Risk analysis is a key area in financial markets and several of the approaches used in financial analysis are also found in the R and D management area; for example, decision trees and Monte Carlo analysis. Decision trees have been discussed in many papers in terms of the principle and method of construction and use. They are relatively old technology in decision analysis terms, but have found wide use in both the literature and also in industry (Magee, 1964; Raiffa, 1968; Thomas, 1972). They can help in: Understanding the basic outline of the projec t path from inception to completion. The construction of the decision tree can help the project evaluator, project team and project reviewers to understand the likely events that that will have to be developed as the project progresses. It can also help to reduce/avoid management surprises in downstream activities. Understanding of probabilities of success along the project path. Once the tree has been constructed a normal process is then to roll back the tree and input probability success factors at event nodes. Developing project gates. Key project milestones can be readily seen such that project review groups can understand critical project phases, develop appropriate gates for the project for the project to pass through or be reconsidered. Facilitating the calculation of revised probabilities of success as the project passes through various development stages. The actual construction of a decision tree can be a time consuming process for each project but it can be re garded as a useful investment in time either by the project evaluator(s), the project team itself or perhaps a project review group. The time spent in consideration of the project is likely to be a worthwhile investment since it aids the above processes, helps in the resource decision and provides a potential communication route for the team, business management and others. In terms of the construction of a decision tree, Phillips (1980) suggests that the decision tree is most usefully used as part of a total decision analysis using a 10 step construction process as shown below: 1. Recognition that a decision problem exists. 2. Structure the decision problem. 3. Describe the consequences. 4. Specify the criteria. 5. Evaluate the consequences for each criterion. 6. Assess weights for the criteria. 7. Determine utilities of consequences. 8. Assess probabilities. 9. Apply expected utility principle. 10. Carry out sensitivity analysis. Being able to layo ut on a single sheet of paper the key elements of a project can prove useful in project selection, project management and even the termination decision. Some examples of potential utility can be seen from Fig. 1. This was generated from consultation with the portfolio manager in the company which we use as a case study later in this paper and a typical macro view of a generic research project for a new molecule. It highlights both the likely path, key decision points and also potential regrets along the way (primarily research expense). Decision trees do have some weaknesses associated with their use including the fact that they are quite difficult to draw on normal PC graphics programs (e.g., FreelanceTM and PowerpointTM ) which may not help the communication process. Also, they are not ideal for parallel events that happen over a period of time. An example of this would be middle stages of the tree developed in the previous diagram where toxicology, capability assessments/en gineering and economics are all events that would normally occur over a similar period of time and would often be run together. However, the thinking process that a decision tree naturally leads a reviewer through supports better project planning by increased understanding of the overall path that a project is likely to progress along. As well as the project approval phase, decision trees may prove even more useful in the project phase since they help in the process of: Ensuring that the project team understands the risks and challenges associated with the project. Provides a useful communication process for both internal team communication and also communication from the team to business and technology management. Helps the team to understand why a project might be nearing a termination decision and may in fact help in the process of reducing the emotion associated with a project termination decision Provides a logical layout for key decision points and project reviews. To some extent this is taken care of in the new project methodology by the stage-gate process. Provides a potential mechanism to enable recalculation of the probability of success, p(t), as any given project progresses along its development path. Potentially aids the easier overlay of time and may in fact be a useful project management tool working in partnership with GANTT charts.